NOLA.com: Hurricane Center: "Washing Away," Times-Picayune Special Report (2002)
Some short quotes:
"It's only a matter of time before South Louisiana takes a direct hit from a major hurricane. Billions have been spent to protect us, but we grow more vulnerable every day."
"The city is exposed to as much as four times the risk of hurricane flooding as it is to river flooding . . . that's always been an odd issue to me. Why would the government think that water from the lake is less dangerous than water from the river?" -- Joseph Shuhayda, LSU engineering professor
Perhaps most poignant in this series of text, photos and graphical depictions of the vulnerable levee system is this section, which describes a "worst case scenario" that was realized last week:
Quoting a few parts of this must-read study:
"... A stronger storm [than Georges] on a slightly different course -- such as the path Georges was on just 16 hours before landfall -- could have realized emergency officials' worst-case scenario: hundreds of billions of gallons of lake water pouring over the levees into an area averaging 5 feet below sea level with no natural means of drainage."
"That would turn the city and the east bank of Jefferson Parish into a lake as much as 30 feet deep, fouled with chemicals and waste from ruined septic systems, businesses and homes. Such a flood could trap hundreds of thousands of people in buildings and in vehicles."
* * *
"The scene has been played out for years in computer models and emergency-operations simulations. Officials at the local, state and national level are convinced the risk is genuine and are devising plans for alleviating the aftermath of a disaster that could leave the city uninhabitable for six months or more."
* * *
" With computer modeling of hurricanes and storm surges, disaster experts have developed a detailed picture of how a storm could push Lake Pontchartrain over the levees and into the city."
* * *
"Another scenario is that some part of the levee would fail," Suhayda said. "It's not something that's expected. But erosion occurs, and as levees broke, the break will get wider and wider. The water will flow through the city and stop only when it reaches the next higher thing. The most continuous barrier is the south levee, along the river. That's 25 feet high, so you'll see the water pile up on the river levee."
"Washing Away," New Orleans Times-Picayune Five-Part Series published June 23-27, 2002.
This is one of the many directly relevant studies that the President of the United States denied that "anyone" knew about.
Unintended Consequences: Reuters: POTUS Denies Anyone Knew, Despite Times-Picayune Published Studies that Levees Vulnerable
Reuters:"In comments on Thursday, President George W. Bush said, "I don't think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees."
Ignorance or denial?
Either is disgraceful.
Posted by dougsimpson at September 5, 2005 06:22 AM