June 22, 2006
CO2 impact of "cheaper" electricity
Energy related emissions of carbon dioxide will increase 71% during the next 25 years, as cheaper coal replaces expensive oil and overall energy demand climbs, according to Chapter 7 of the U.S. Energy Information Administration's International Energy Outlook 2006 - Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions (June 2006).
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Most climatologists have agreed for some time that the average temperature of the earth is rising, that most of it is the result of human activities, mostly burning fossil fuels and clearing land, both of which release CO2. Mastrandrea, Michael D., and Stephen H. Schneider. "Global warming." World Book Online Reference Center. 2005. World Book, Inc. http://www.worldbookonline.com/wb/Article?id=ar226310.
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The Antarctic ice shelf is melting and shrinking, releasing huge amounts of water into the oceans.
Thousands of icebergs float off the coast of the Antarctic Peninsula after 1,250 square miles (3,240 square kilometers) of the Larsen B ice shelf disintegrated in 2002. The area of the ice was larger than the state of Rhode Island or the nation of Luxembourg. Antarctic ice shelves have been shrinking since the early 1970's because of climate warming in the region. Image credit: NASA/Earth Observatory
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According to the Environmental Protection Agency, "increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are likely to accelerate the rate of climate change. Scientists expect that the average global surface temperature could rise 1-4.5°F (0.6-2.5°C) in the next fifty years, and 2.2-10°F (1.4-5.8°C) in the next century, with significant regional variation. Evaporation will increase as the climate warms, which will increase average global precipitation. Soil moisture is likely to decline in many regions, and intense rainstorms are likely to become more frequent. Sea level is likely to rise two feet along most of the U.S. coast." This continues a trend that dates back to the late 19th century.
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Source of quote and image: EPA : Global Warming : Climate
Like many other regions, my own state of Connecticut faces increasing demand for energy while costs are driven up by rising oil prices. State officials are considering a proposal by NRG Energy, Inc. to invest up to $2 billion to build new coal-buring generation plants in Connecticut to replace older, "Sooty Six" plants and increase supply. A $1.5 billion coal gasification power plant is included in the proposal. Coal was selected for the fuel source because its price is lower and more stable than natural gas, according to local news reports, despite its greater CO2 emissions. courant.com | NRG Unveils Huge Project (Hartford Courant, June 22, 2006)
Connecticut Attorney General Blumenthal is examining the plan, while continuing to advocate a Connecticut Energy Authority to address what he calls a "fundamentally flawed market." Local environmental groups are objecting to the characterization of the new plant as "clean" when it will put more CO2 into the air than a comparable natural gas fired plant. Ibid.
Others in the state are looking at proposals to reverse the 1998 decision to sever generation and delivery in order to stimulate more competition in power generation. Energy Legal Blog : Back to the Vertically Integrated Electric Utility
We'll watch for some process to "internalize" the external cost of global warming into the cost/benefit calculation of new generation capacity and choice of fuels.
Querie: Would leaving power generation open to unbridled competition drive generators in a "race to the bottom," allowing more CO2 emissions in order to meet price competition?
Querie: Can politically influenced state regulators do a better job of voting for higher prices in order to reduce greenhouse gases?
Tough questions. Your emails to doug "at" dougsimpson.com with pointers to thoughts and sources would be welcome. Comments and TB are off because of spam.
Posted by dougsimpson at June 22, 2006 10:06 PM